Lewis County Sirens.com

Monday Jan. 17, 2011: The Cowlitz River at Skate Creek Road Bridge in Packwood this morning. The river was high and fast yesterday afternoon but has gone down a bit this morning. / Courtesy photo by Bill Serrahn

By Sharyn  L. Decker
Lewis County Sirens news reporter

More than an inch of rain is expected in the mountains tonight, leaving some in Randle cautiously monitoring the Cowlitz River which has already begun flooding.

The fire department this morning went door to door advising residents in low-lying areas to evacuate. Some have, and some, like Per and Pearl Fjugstad are staying.

“We’re high and dry, it’s not a problem,” Per Fjugstad said about 6 o’clock tonight.

The couple, who live on McKay Street just off U.S. Highway 12 near the center of town, however, are surrounded by water.

In November 2006 when the Cowlitz River rose to just over 25 feet, some seven feet beyond its flood stage, theirs was the only home on McKay Street that did not get water inside. But the following year, they built themselves a new house across the street eight inches higher.

One of their neighbors departed a couple of hours earlier and another moved to her upstairs, Per Fjugstad said. He estimated the water was a little more than two feet deep at that end of the street.

“It’s not raining right now,” Per Fjugstad said. “In fact, I don’t think it’s rained in the last couple three hours. That’s gonna help us a lot.”

This morning’s forecast indicated the river could crest at almost 24 feet, but the latest prediction is for just less than 23 feet.

Lewis County Fire District 14 Chief Jeff Jaques said this evening U.S. Highway 12 just east of the intersection with state Route 131 is closed, as expected, but a detour is in place on Silverbrook Road.

And state Route 131 which leads out towards Cispus is closed.

A flood watch remains in effect for portions of Western Washington through tomorrow afternoon, including in Lewis, Thurston and Grays Harbor counties.

Flood warnings continue on the Cowlitz at Randle and Packwood, the Nisqually River near National, the Newaukum River near Chehalis, the Chehalis River at Grand Mound and the Skookumchuck River near Bucoda.

The National Weather Service cautions those living near “unwarned” rivers in the watch area should continue to monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings until the watch has ended.

Some of those rivers have crested already, such as the Newaukum River, and the Cowlitz at Packwood.

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Continuously updated conditions, warnings and forecasts in more detail can be found from the National Weather Service’s website by clicking on “Weather forecasts” and “River levels” beneath “Other useful web links” on the right hand side of Lewis County Sirens pages.

This was updated at 12:30 p.m.

By Sharyn  L. Decker
Lewis County Sirens news reporter

Fire department crews are going door to door in low-lying areas of Randle this morning and advising residents to evacuate, according to the Lewis County Sheriff’s Office.

In Packwood, the fire department is advising citizens to monitor the level of the Cowlitz River themselves and be prepared to evacuate if necessary, the sheriff’s office reports.

A flood warning was issued last night for the Cowlitz River which forecast major flooding in the Randle area and moderate flooding in Packwood.

The current forecast is the river could crest in Randle at almost 24 feet around 4 o’clock tomorrow morning, but water is expected to cover U.S. Highway 12 in that area by this afternoon or early evening, according to the sheriff’s office and the National Weather Service.

The river floods in Randle at 18 feet and it was at about that level at 9:30 this morning, according to the weather service.

Flood stage in Packwood is 10.5 feet and the river reached about that level around 11:15 a.m. today. It is predicted to crest about one foot higher around 10 p.m. tonight.

The sheriff’s office cautions citizens to be safe and not drive through standing water.

In the November 2006 flooding around Randle and Packwood, a man drowned after driving his truck through water which swept it and him away.

The Lewis County Emergency Operations Center is set to open this afternoon as officials prepare for anticipated flooding.

The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings in several counties, including Lewis, Thurston, Pierce, King, Snohomish, Pacific, Yakima and eastern Grays Harbor counties.

A flood watch on the Newaukum River near Chehalis was upgraded at 9:40 a.m. today to a flood warning.

Heavy rain over the southern Washington Cascade Mountains overnight and today will drive the Newaukum over flood stage later today which will likely continue into tomorrow, the weather service reports.

Minor flooding is expected.

The current prediction is the Newaukum will crest near 11.7 feet – about a foot over flood stage of 10.5 feet – around 10 p.m. tonight.

At 10.5 feet, flood waters will inundate many roads, residential and commercial areas along the Newaukum and its forks. Some areas may be deep and hazardous, the weather service cautions.
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Continuously updated conditions, warnings and forecasts in more detail can be found from the National Weather Service’s website by clicking on “Weather forecasts” and “River levels” beneath “Other useful web links” on the right hand side of Lewis County Sirens pages.

By Sharyn  L. Decker
Lewis County Sirens news reporter

Update: The forecasts for some river levels were increased again at 11:12 p.m., except for the Cowlitz below the Mayfield dam which was decreased. Check them here

The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings now for the Cowlitz River at Packwood, Randle, and below Mayfield Dam.

A flood warning means that flooding is imminent or has been reported.

Major flooding is possible on the Cowlitz, the weather service reported at 8:38 p.m. tonight.

The weather service describes that as rising above flood stage at Randle around 7 a.m. tomorrow and cresting at 23.2 feet about 10 a.m. on Monday.

At 22 feet, the river will cause major flooding from Randle and downstream through Riffe Lake, and what the weather service calls dangerous inundation of many roads including U.S. Highway 12, residential, commercial areas and farms. Flooding can be expected along the river, its headwaters, tributaries and other streams within and near the Cowlitz River Basin.

In Packwood, moderate flooding is expected.

Below Mayfield dam, minor flooding is expected. Flood waters will inundate some farmlands and several roads, mainly near Toledo, according to the weather service.

Moderate flooding is also expected on the Nisqually River near National.

A flood warning has also been issued tonight for urban areas and small streams in Lewis, Mason, Thurston and eastern Grays Harbor counties until 2 p.m. Sunday.

Expect widespread flooding of small streams to begin late tonight, the weather service reports.
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Scroll down to see what Randle area Fire Chief Jeff Jaques expects at 22 feet.
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By Sharyn  L. Decker
Lewis County Sirens news reporter

A flood watch first issued Thursday for portions of Western Washington including Lewis County has been extended through Monday afternoon.

Yet another system expected to bring substantial rainfall late today through tomorrow, combined with high snow levels of 8,000 to 9,000 feet could drive many rivers over flood stage, according to the National Weather Service.

For comparison, White Pass is at an elevation of 4,500 feet.

The potential is for minor to moderate flooding, the weather service’s mid-day forecast notes.

The Cowlitz River at Randle is forecast to exceed flood stage by the most and crest sooner than most rivers around Lewis County.

By 10 p.m. tomorrow, the river could be just over major flood stage of 22 feet.

Lewis County Fire District 14 Chief Jeff Jaques said at that level, “it’s not going to inundate a bunch of homes or anything.”

However, Jaques said this evening, he expects U.S. Highway 12 will be under water and closed with a detour on Silverbrook Road at Randle. And state Route 131 out towards Cispus will likely be covered with water well, he said.

“Fortunately we don’t have a lot of snow in the mountains like we did in 2006,” he said.

In November 2006, rain combined with a big snowmelt lifted the Cowlitz River to just over 25 feet devastating areas around Randle and Packwood.

The fire chief said it was reasonable dry today and only began raining a few hours ago.

It’s not a huge issue until it gets around 23 to 24 feet in Randle, he said.

The community saw levels of about 22 feet in both January 2009 and November 2008, according to Jaques.

Within the past hour, the weather service changed its expectation of the river at Randle, now forecasting it may crest at just over 23 feet around 10 o’clock Monday morning.

A flood watch means conditions are favorable for flooding but flooding is not imminent or occurring.

Two to five inches of rain are expected in the Cascade and Olympic mountains through tomorrow.

The ongoing wet weather has prompted cautions about potential mudslides around Western Washington and also an avalanche warning in the mountains through tomorrow.

The Newaukum River near Chehalis is forecast to crest about a foot over flood stage around 10 o’clock tomorrow morning.

The Skookumchuck River at Bucoda is also forecast to crest about a foot over flood stage but not until 10 p.m. tomorrow night. It’s expected to remain below flood stage in Centralia.

And about 10 a.m. on Monday, the Chehalis River at Centralia and Grand Mound is expected to crest between one and a half and two feet above flood stage.

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Watch the river levels and their forecasts for yourself here now or, anytime, by clicking on “River levels” under “Other useful web links” on the right hand side of Lewis County Sirens pages.